January 16, 2013

Pulsenomics Home Price Expectation Survey


As I mentioned in my last post, what Pulsenomics does is they take over a hundred of the leading analysts in the country and say, “What are your guesses going forward over the next few years?”  Then they take all of those hundred plus projections and mesh them into one number.

Following is the analogy, my friend Steve Harney over at the KCM Blog likes to use;If we had a jar of jelly beans in front of a room of a hundred people, if any one of those people guessed how many beans were in the jar, some would guess way too high, some would guess way too low. But if we asked all hundred people to guess and then we averaged out all of their answers, we would come up with a number real close to the number of beans in that jelly bean jar. That is what the Home Price Expectation Survey is. They take over a hundred opinions and mash them into one number.  See below